Comment on \u201cCan assimilation of crowdsourced data in hydrological modelling improve flood prediction?\u201d by Mazzoleni et al. (2017)

Citizen science and crowdsourcing are gaining increasing attention among hydrologists. In a recent contribution, Mazzoleni et al. (2017) investigated the integration of crowdsourced data (CSD) into hydrological models to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasts. The authors used synthetic CSD (i.e. not actually measured), because real CSD were not available at the time of the study. In their work, which is a proof-of-concept study, Mazzoleni et al. (2017) showed that assimilation of CSD improves the overall model performance; the impact of irregular frequency of available CSD, and that of data uncertainty, were also deeply assessed. However, the use of synthetic CSD in conjunction with (semi-)distributed hydrological models deserves further discussion. As a result of equifinality, poor model identifiability, and deficiencies in model structure, internal states of (semi-)distributed models can hardly mimic the actual states of complex systems away from calibration points. Accordingly, the use of synthetic CSD that are drawn from model internal states under best-fit conditions can lead to overestimation of the effectiveness of CSD assimilation in improving flood prediction. Operational flood forecasting, which results in decisions of high societal value, requires robust knowledge of the model behaviour and an in-depth assessment of both model structure and forcing data. Additional guidelines are given that are useful for the a priori evaluation of CSD for real-time flood forecasting and, hopefully, for planning apt design strategies for both model calibration and collection of CSD

Modelling urban floods using a finite element staggered scheme with an anisotropic dual porosity model

In porosity models for urban flooding, artificial porosity is used as a statistical descriptor of the urban medium. Buildings are treated as subgrid-scale features and, even with the use of relatively coarse grids, their effects on the flow are accounted for. Porosity models are attractive for large-scale applications due to limited computational demand with respect to solving the classical Shallow Water Equations on high-resolution grids. In the last decade, effective schemes have been developed that allowed accounting for a wealth of sub-grid processes; unfortunately, they are known to suffer from over-sensitivity to mesh design in the case of anisotropic porosity fields, which are typical of urban layouts. In the present study, a dual porosity approach is implemented into a two-dimensional Finite Element numerical scheme that uses a staggered unstructured mesh. The presence of buildings is modelled using an isotropic porosity in the continuity equation, to account for the reduced water storage, and a tensor formulation for conveyance porosity in the momentum equations, to account for anisotropy and effective flow velocity. The element-by-element definition of porosities, and the use of a staggered grid in which triangular cells convey fluxes and continuity is balanced at grid nodes, allow avoiding undesired mesh-dependency. Tested against refined numerical solutions and data from a laboratory experiment, the model provided satisfactory results. Model limitations are discussed in view of applications to more complex, real urban layouts

Modelling urban floods using a finite element staggered scheme with porosity and anisotropic resistance

Artificial porosity models for urban flooding use porosity as a statistical descriptor for the presence of buildings, which are then treated as subgridscale features. Computational efficiency makes porosity models attractive for large-scale applications. These models are typically implemented in the framework of two-dimensional (2D) finite volume collocated schemes. The most effective schemes, falling under the category of Integral Porosity models, allow accounting for a wealth of sub-grid processes, but they are known to suffer from oversensitivity to mesh design in the case of anisotropic porosity fields. In the present exploratory study, a dual porosity approach is implemented into a staggered finite element numerical model. The free surface elevation is defined at grid nodes, where continuity equation is solved; fluxes are conveyed by triangular cells, which act as 2D-links between adjacent grid nodes. The presence of building is modelled using an isotropic porosity in the continuity equation to account for the reduced water storage, and an anisotropic conveyance porosity in the momentum equations to compute bottom shear stress. Both porosities are defined on an element-by-element basis, thus avoiding mesh-dependency. Although suffering a number of limitations, the model shows promising results

Optimal floodgate operation for river flood management: The case study of Padova (Italy)

Study region: A large, densely populated area nearby Padova (Veneto Region, Italy) is exposed to floods owing to the Brenta-Bacchiglione river network, which is formed by two main rivers and by a set of interconnected channels, control structures and pump stations. Study focus: The Brenta and Bacchiglione rivers suffer from an increasing pressure in terms of flood events, especially for urban sprawl, anthropogenic modifications of drainage networks, and climate change. Finding and implementing effective remedies is hard in developed countries due to the presence of several constraints. Optimal flood management in complex river networks is then a way to reduce flood hazard, at a relatively low cost compared to structural measures. Hence, optimal operation rules for floodgates at an existing control structure are searched for to control the upstream water level and to divert a proper amount of the Bacchiglione discharge into the Brenta River. The operation rules have been endorsed by the Civil Engineering Department in charge of flood management and have been implemented in the flood forecasting Early Warning System of the Regional Civil Protection Office. New hydrological insights: The proper operation of control structures allows reducing flood risk by balancing the water discharge in the river networks. The engagement of end-users proves beneficial as it fosters exchange of knowledge and allows for the effective adoption of research outcomes in decision making

Floods, landscape modifications and population dynamics in anthropogenic coastal lowlands: the Polesine (northern Italy) case study

It is widely recognized that the complex relationship between humans, soil, and water has become increasingly complicated due to anthropogenic activities, and is further expected to worsen in the future as a result of population dynamics and climate change. The present study aims at shedding light on the multifaceted links between floods, landscape modifications, and population dynamics in anthropogenic coastal lowlands, using a large flood-prone area (the Polesine Region, northeastern Italy) as a significant case study. Based on the analysis of historical events and the results of hydraulic modeling, it is shown that human interventions on both the landscape and the subsoil have substantially altered the flooding dynamics, exacerbating hydraulic hazard. Furthermore, the combined analysis of people and assets exposure to inundation reveals that flood risk is not properly taken into account in land-use planning, nor it is properly understood by people living in areas subject to low-probability, high-impact flooding events

Flood inundation modeling in urbanized areas: A mesh-independent porosity approach with anisotropic friction

In the present work, a porosity-based numerical scheme for the Shallow Water Equations is presented. With the aim of accounting for the presence of storage areas, such as gardens, yards and dead zones, and for preferential flow pathways, both an isotropic storage porosity parameter and anisotropic friction are adopted. Particularly, the anisotropic effects due to the building alignments are evaluated defining conveyance porosities along principal directions and using them to express the friction losses in tensor form. The storage and conveyance porosities are evaluated from the geometry of the urban layout at a district scale and then assigned to computational cells rather than to cell sides, thus avoiding oversensitivity to the mesh design. The proposed formulation guarantees the C-property also in presence of wet-dry fronts. Model testing is performed analyzing schematic and idealized urban layouts, and against experimental data as well. The results obtained by the proposed anisotropic scheme are similar to a high-resolution model with resolved buildings, also in the presence of low-friction regimes, meanwhile with a remarkable reduction of the computational times

Consideration of the Mechanisms for Tidal Bore Formation in an Idealized Planform Geometry

A tidal bore is a positive wave traveling upstream along the estuary of a river, generated by a relatively rapid rise of the tide, often enhanced by the funneling shape of the estuary. The swell produced by the tide grows and its front steepens as the flooding tide advances inland, promoting the formation of a sharp front wave, i.e., the tidal bore. Because of the many mechanisms and conditions involved in the process, it is difficult to formulate an effective criterion to predict the bore formation. In this preliminary analysis, aimed at bringing out the main processes and parameters that control tidal bore formation, the degrees of freedom of the problem are largely reduced by considering a rectangular channel of constant width with uniform flow, forced downstream by rising the water level at a constant rate. The framework used in this study is extremely simple, yet the problem is still complex and the solution is far from being trivial. From the results of numerical simulations, three distinctive behaviors emerged related to conditions in which a tidal bore forms, a tidal bore does not form, and a weak bore forms; the latter has a weakly steep front and after the bore formed it rapidly vanishes. Based on these behaviors, some criteria to predict the bore formation are proposed and discussed. The more effective criterion, suitably rearranged, is checked against data from real estuaries and the predictions are found to compare favorably with the available data

Curvature-induced secondary flow in 2D depth-averaged hydro-morphodynamic models: An assessment of different approaches and key factors

Curvature-induced secondary flows are ubiquitous in nature and have long attracted scientist attention. Modelling such kind of secondary flows is not straightforward. While full 3D models fit the purpose at the cost of great computational demand, simplified models often pose concerns about their effectiveness and the representation of key processes. In the present study, helical flow secondary currents are included in a two-dimensional depth-averaged hydro-morphodynamic model on cartesian unstructured meshes. The non-uniform vertical distribution of velocity in streamwise and spanwise directions is accounted for introducing dispersive terms in the shallow water equations, an anisotropic diffusivity tensor in the advection-diffusion equation, and a correction to the direction of bed shear stress and bedload transport. Different approaches available in the literature are recast in similar form and compared to each other in terms of flow field, tracer transport, and bed evolution, using data from laboratory experiments and real-world case studies. The model includes a novel, pure 2D implementation of the non-linear saturation mechanism that limits the growth of secondary flows in relatively sharp bends. A substantial part of the paper is devoted to discuss key factors in secondary flow modelling, including implementation tricks, guidelines to mesh design, the suitability of local and non-local approaches, and the role of bathymetry. The final goal is to provide useful guidelines for 2D hydro- and morphodynamic modelling in river bends

Floodwater pathways in urban areas: A method to compute porosity fields for anisotropic subgrid models in differential form

In the framework of porosity models for large-scale urban floods, this work presents a method to compute the spatial distribution of the porosity parameters of complex urban areas by analyzing the footprints of buildings and obstacles. Precisely, an algorithm is described that estimates the four parameters required by the differential, dual-porosity formulation we recently presented. In this formulation, beside the common isotropic porosity accounting for the reduced storage volume due to buildings, a cell-based conveyance porosity is introduced in the momentum equations in tensor form to model anisotropic resistances and alterations in the flow direction due to presence of preferential pathways such as streets. A cell-averaged description of the spatial connectivity in the urban medium and of the preferential flow directions is the main ingredient for robust and mesh-independent estimates. To achieve this goal, the algorithm here presented automatically extracts the spatially distributed porosity fields of urban layouts relying only on geometrical information, thus avoiding additional calibration effort. The proposed method is described with the aid of schematic applications and then tested by simulating the flooding of real, complex urban areas using structured Cartesian grids. A Fortran implementation of the algorithm is made available for free download and use